Since the beginning of the new century, the price of aluminum has been surging, soaring and plummeting; Since 2011 prices have peaked, despite the trend, there is no smooth front.
The historical trend is as follows:
In the past 12 years, the import and export data of Chinese
aluminum products have been compiled. The seemingly boring Numbers have recorded the development of China's aluminum industry over the past 10 years, reflecting the changes in China's economy. With a little summary and analysis of the data, we can also see the changes in the structure and product structure of China's aluminum industry, and some of the reasons for the rapid development of China's aluminum industry over the past 10 years have been revealed. It also helps us to predict the future development of aluminum market.
1. Aluminum is heavily dependent on imports.
Over the past 12 years, China has imported 302 million tons of bauxite, 61.6 million tons of alumina and 32.6 million tons of waste aluminum. During the same period, the total production of raw aluminum in China reached 180 million tons. Initially, the original aluminum used in the production of imported resources was about 74.5 million tons, and the cumulative import dependence was 41.2%.
Over the past 12 years, China has spent $70.2 billion on imported aluminum. It costs $14.9 billion to import bauxite, $22.4 billion for imported alumina, and $33 billion for imported aluminium.
2012-2014 China aluminum resources import amount ($100 million)
201220132014
Bauxite 18. 8637. 6720. 70
Alumina 19. 0014. 9120. 12
Aluminium scrap 41. 2739. 1534. 62
Total 79. 1691. 7775. 47
2. The import of aluminum and aluminum processing products and aluminum products has been decreasing year by year.
From 2003 to 2014, with the development of aluminum smelting and aluminum processing industry in China, the imports of aluminum and
aluminum alloy products generally tended to decrease. Among them, aluminum and aluminum alloy are mainly imported materials processing trade. Some
aluminum foil and aluminum profile products also need to be imported, mainly for processing trade, and some foreign companies need to pay high prices to import processing products for tax avoidance. Some high-end aluminum materials have relatively high manufacturing costs due to insufficient domestic production volume, and also leave a small amount of market space for foreign products. At present, the domestic production capacity is insufficient and cannot produce aluminium material breed already very few. The production capacity of
aluminum products that need further processing is very strong, and the import volume is very low.
2012-2014 imports of Chinese aluminum products (tons)
201220132014
Aluminum and aluminum alloy 639814481341353649.
Aluminum plate with 373836338899347307
Lu: xingcai, 768226224167595
Aluminum foil 554995637259650
Aluminum 231302581827836
Aluminum tube 141281290313057
Aluminium wire 704472098734
Aluminum window structure 438373235596.
Aluminum furniture appliances 429743354535.
Aluminium cans, 205619492815
Aluminum tube 147419691789
Aluminium powder, 235321231693
Aluminum containers 4701119554
Aluminum pressure vessel 390261214.
Aluminum wire 40935854
In total, 12061051004220895078
3. The export of aluminum and
aluminum products in China has increased rapidly.
Over the past 12 years, is China's aluminium processing material, aluminum the golden age of finished product is exported, rapid export growth of export products, export of extensive, the rich, the operation of the means of diversity, shocked the industry.
In the 12 years from 2003 to 2014, China's total exports of aluminum and aluminum alloy, aluminum processing materials and various aluminum products reached 46.21 million tons. Despite the impact of the financial crisis, exports have grown at an average annual rate of 10.52%. It reached a record 6176,000 tons in 2014.
Among them, the total export 10.54 million tons of aluminium and aluminium alloy,
aluminium plate with 9.22 million tons, 6.79 million tons of aluminum,
aluminum foil, 4.9 million tons of aluminum doors and Windows and structure of 4.72 million tons, 3.98 million tons of aluminum products, aluminum furniture appliances, 3.1 million tons. It can be said that Chinese aluminum processing materials and even deep processing products have penetrated into various market segments and corners by virtue of various advantages.
(it should be noted that some of these products contain the weight of other materials in the product. It is not completely aluminum alloy, it is not refined. The data is for reference only.
China's exports of aluminium products from 2012 to 2014 (tons)
201220132014
Aluminum plate with 119432615533371738405
Aluminum foil 652727754699867708
Lu: xingcai, 852277611895854700
Aluminum window structure 498417559983669075.
Aluminum and aluminum alloy 631212572280667051.
Aluminum 480987525590562577
Aluminum furniture equipment 369274416089418692.
Aluminum wire 121921130272156923
Aluminum tube 82145101527154414
Aluminium cans, 260772502825329
Aluminium wire 238231717122161
Aluminum tube accessories 179231848221029.
Aluminium powder, 5764800610265
Aluminum pressure vessel 602660866262.
Aluminum containers 61215921345
In total, 496351153020376175936
The above mentioned aluminum products only counted some of the products in chapter 76 of the customs tariff, and did not include the aluminium-intensive products in other chapters. For example, aluminum alloy wheels exported up to 790,000 tons in 2014. There are also the indirect exports of
aluminum alloys such as bicycles, motorcycles, tools, lamps, appliances, 3C products and electromechanical equipment. Rough estimates suggest that China's exports of aluminium in 2014 should be more than 8m tonnes or more.
It can be said that aluminum is not only the raw material and processing product of domestic direct export, but also the important basic material supporting the whole manufacturing and export processing industry in China. Exports, indeed, are important carriages that have driven the development of China's aluminium market and aluminium industry over the past 12 years, and are more important than we ever imagined.
4. China's aluminum export destination is extensive, and the trade flow is changeable.
China's aluminum exports to more than 200 countries and regions. Export destination distribution is more and more widely, especially in recent years, exports to emerging markets and developing countries has boosted the number of aluminum, including Mexico, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Nigeria, and to change a lot. The rising prices of aluminum ingots in foreign markets have also boosted exports to the United States and Europe.
In 2014, the export flow of Chinese aluminum products.
2012-2014 China aluminum plate export main destination (ton)
201220132014
105549185153268292 U.S.
Vietnam, 155726284625202898
South Korea 55746137100181988
Nigeria 112085127586132384.
Indonesia's 5853252711106722
Malaysia, 393978479876328.
India's 331685062671513
Thailand 519395737668450
The united Arab emirates 447063744743251
Brazil's 306323511936920
Canada, 263042701032422
Australia 258702612427266.
Singapore 214142720826760
Iraq 192492406825902
Iran's 144261454424595
Mexico 79281394123656
Saudi Arabia, 248542518023394
Britain's 204691443520427
Germany 79181066017146
Russia's 194851792715624
2012-2014 China aluminum profile export main destination (ton)
201220132014
Malaysia 2153525212202461.
Nigeria 438835722244751.
Vietnam, 6103652940053
Hong Kong, China 282632921734753.
Australia 322772965731636.
The Philippines 193701955927730
Britain's 234372286927185
South Africa 142931828625202
Chile 152921689623413
Singapore 203032028821342
Germany 94501108115322
113221338515290 U.S.
Israel 104131205214727
Russia's 82691187013340
Algeria 11958766113186.
The Netherlands 9750964712482
India's 81891012112377
Brazil's 3584565911781
Mexico 335090483016251
2012-2014 main destination of aluminum foil export (ton)
201220132014
8753899659126084 U.S.
India's 603877499396142
Thailand 363743994741176
Saudi Arabia, 316353519039707
The united Arab emirates 302193642439487
South Korea 226882718532721
Indonesia's 187682560432100
Japan's 269862796830131
Mexico 184782117825446
Malaysia 198552225123811.
Brazil's 142411507720232
Vietnam, 107541333219404
Australia 126721699817813.
Germany 162981462317476
Canada, 96831235717197
Egypt, 113691481015555
Italy, 91491244215215
The Philippines 112531406714816
Britain's 107271131614331
Iran's 146731082313093
5. China's aluminum series products import and export trade surplus is huge.
In 2014, China's aluminium and
aluminium alloy material, aluminum processing, aluminum products and other products exports of $22.6 billion, imports of $4.578 billion, the trade surplus of $18.03 billion (not including bauxite, alumina, aluminium scrap). If you look at the $3.97 billion in aluminum exports, the trade surplus is almost $22 billion. Even with $7.547 billion in imports, the trade surplus is $14.5 billion. Therefore, it can be said that the entire aluminum industry chain is more dependent on exports.
2010-2014 import and export of Chinese aluminum products ($100 million)
Net exports value of imports and exports.
201045.01145.3100.29
201151.47186.4134.93
201254.7186.4131.7
201347.87200.4152.53
201445.78226.1180.32
(this table excludes bauxite, alumina, and aluminum waste)
Through the above brief analysis of the flow of aluminum products, I think there are at least a few points worth summarizing and analyzing:
1. Super massive imports of aluminum resources and the development of domestic aluminum smelting industry is a private enterprise as the leading rushes out a road of industrial development, this largely solved the most strong China for raw materials consumption period of resource bottleneck, strong support for the development of Chinese industrialization urbanization accelerating demand for aluminum material. This is a kind of helpless compensation for the national resource strategy and global layout loss in the past years, which is also a realistic choice. But the costs and potential pitfalls of this development model are huge and difficult to tell. There are many options for future resource development.
2. In the past, the export of al
uminum products only saw aluminum and aluminum processing materials, which led to certain limitations of market analysis. We should also pay attention to the export of aluminum products and related end products, which are very related to the development of domestic aluminum market and aluminum industry.
3. The export volume of aluminum series products accounts for more than 22-25% of the domestic total aluminum production, which is higher if indirect exports are considered. The development of aluminum industry supports the development of aluminum related industries and the export of related products. The development of related industries has also led to the consumption of aluminum in China, which has stimulated the investment of aluminum industry chain. Therefore, the industry chain scale and the export scale of the aluminum industry are large, with a large impact surface.
4. In the global economy continues to weaken, increase under the background of trade barriers, on the basis of higher export scale continues to expand export will meet more barriers, export growth will slow down, even exports will decline. Over the past few years and presents many times since late last year exports surge caused by multiple factors, of course there are domestic aluminum industry technology progress and improve the background of scale expansion, competitiveness, and price difference at home and abroad, premium, capital interest rates, exchange rates, other factors, such as speculative arbitrage is closely linked, presents a speculative and characteristics by phases, are more dependent on policy support, not optimistic that the foreign market prosperity and left us a huge market space. Future exports will be harder and harder to sustain. Therefore, aluminum processing plant, aluminium plant, and investors should have a clear understanding of alumina plant, don't be a temporary market prosperity (implied false prosperity), lead to market miscalculation.
5. Under the new normal of China's economy, the decline in domestic real estate investment and industrial investment will lead to the low and medium speed of the demand for aluminum in construction, and the next stage of export will be difficult to improve. Domestic electrolytic aluminum, aluminum processing capacity surplus contradictions will be more prominent, a series of problems will be paid to the surface, the scene will be more ugly. Therefore, on the one hand, more disciplined control of new aluminum and aluminum processing capacity, need appropriate production and timely production stop, bankruptcy reorganization, on the other hand also to actively expand the aluminum used, opening up new market blue ocean.
6. Due to the long chain of aluminum industry, the degree of internationalization, the adjustment of industrial policy and trade policy should be deliberated and considered. Especially during the period of economic downward pressure, we should face the reality and continue to support the export of normal aluminum and
aluminum products. But from the long term, can't forget the intent of the policy making, and to keep the bottom of policies and regulations, to convey to the market participants that correct and clear signal, the gradual adjustment policies, strengthen supervision, to reduce low value-added and non-value-added, or even negative value-added products exports. We should restrict the use of policies to export
aluminum products solely for the purpose of money arbitrage. To find the best way to safeguard the overall interests and national interests of the industry, and ensure its consistency. At least not to boost cross-border capital of excessive speculation in the industry, so as not to at the moment and in the near future more trouble to the government, leave more suffering to stick to the industry of the industry.
7. Export competition with low cost and price as an important means in the past 10 years.